How are Texas oil leases forecasted?

Very carefully! Texas oil production volumes are recorded not at the well level but at the lease level. This poses special challenges when forecasting because an oil lease with many wells at different lifecycle stages will produce a lease-level decline curve which masks the natural decline of each constituent well. Well level production data is needed to observe and then forecast production. To solve this problem ShaleCast goes the extra mile to divide, or allocate, the aggregate lease production to each well in the lease. Once we’ve allocated production we can forecast each well. The individual well forecasts are then recombined into a single forecast for the entire Texas oil lease.

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